Elected in 2018, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador set out to remake Mexico. But the past six years will pale next to the coming month. The country held presidential and parliamentary elections in June which the ruling coalition won by a landslide, in effect giving it a supermajority in Congress. It was clear back then that Mr. López Obrador would try to use this supermajority to ram through a series of constitutional changes in the month during which his presidency overlaps with the new Congress. It appears clear that many of these changes would profoundly damage Mexico’s democracy and economy.
With the arrival of the new Congress, the moment of decision has come. On September 4th the lower house passed one of the most controversial reforms, on the judiciary. So far Claudia Sheinbaum, who will become president on October 1st, has failed to stand up to the man who is her mentor.
Mr. López Obrador, a populist with a retrograde vision, claims the reforms will purge the old elite and boost Mexico’s democracy. He holds a long-standing grudge against independent courts, regulators and officials who check executive power. The judicial overhaul would make all federal judges elected, including those on the Supreme Court and the electoral tribunals, replacing a system of exams and nominations. State and local judges are expected to follow. Next is legislation to put the National Guard, a civilian police force, under the defense ministry, militarizing public security. Another reform eliminates autonomous agencies including regulators and the freedom of information agency. The list goes on.
Most of these changes would be disastrous. Mexico’s justice system is slow and often corrupt. But, as Bolivia shows, electing top judges will only make it worse. [Bolivia is the only country in the world that elects its top judges. Under Bolivia’s system, every top judicial post, including those in the Constitutional Court and Supreme Court, is up for grabs every six years. The elections involve two steps: first, a two-thirds majority in Congress picks a shortlist of candidates, then the people vote. The result is that the ruling party gets the judges they want with little legitimacy. Judicial elections were meant to boost the legitimacy and independence of Bolivian courts. Instead, they have done the opposite.] Most of Mr. López Obrador’s changes are intended to remove checks on the executive and concentrate power in the dominant party. His movement, Morena, is beginning to act like the authoritarian Institutional Revolutionary Party that ruled over the country during most of the 20th century.
That is the last thing Mexico needs. It has a big opportunity as manufacturing supply- chains move closer to America, but it is missing the boat. The country is buckling under
crime and violence, has a swollen budget deficit and faces a review of the USMCA, its trade deal with America and Canada, in 2026. Companies are wary: in June fixed investment fell compared with a year earlier. Chambers of commerce warn of eroding business confidence. The reforms are worrying financial markets. Since the election, the peso has fallen by 14%.
Investors are not alone. Judges are on strike. NGOs are alarmed at the threat to human rights. Foreign diplomats say the changes may violate the USMCA and endanger its revision. For years Mr. López Obrador skillfully avoided blow-ups with the United States. Not anymore. The American ambassador to Mexico has warned that his agenda “threatens the historic commercial relationship” between the two countries.
Ms. Sheinbaum must help Mexico change course. After all, she, not her old boss, will have to deal with the fallout. Although she shares his flawed ideology, she is more pragmatic and appears uneasy with some changes. She has tried to reassure investors. A proposal to elect members of the body that runs elections has apparently been sidelined at her request.
That is too modest. Ms. Sheinbaum should make a final effort to persuade Mr. López Obrador to reconsider. If the legislation proceeds, lawmakers in Congress and the states should put their country first and vote it down. If some changes pass, Ms. Sheinbaum should resort to damage limitation. Constitutional amendments also require implementing legislation. As president, she could, for example, try to toughen the qualifications needed to stand for election as a judge.
The coming month will be a high-stakes test of Mexico’s credentials as a constitutional democracy that operates under the rule of law. It will also show whether it can command the confidence of its trading partners and of investors. It is, therefore, a crucial test of Ms. Sheinbaum’s authority and values.